The Argentine Thread · Markets and Data

Argentina Stability Index

Our own 0 to 100 reading of how stable Argentina's financial conditions are, compared with the last two years. 100 is the calmest reading of the period; 0 is the most stressed.

History since June 2023

What is in it

Stability is where today's reading ranks against the trailing two years, flipped so 100 is calmest. Points are weight times stability; they add up to the daily score before the five day average.

How to read the labels

• Stable 65 or more
• Watch 50 to 65
• Weakening 35 to 50
• Stressed under 35

Method

Each of the five inputs is ranked against its own trailing two years of business days (at least 120 days of history). Only data available on each date is used, so the backtest has no hindsight: monthly inflation counts from the 15th of the following month, around when INDEC publishes it. Rising country risk, a wider gap, falling reserves and higher inflation all count as stress. The weighted stress is subtracted from 100 and smoothed over five days. Holidays carry the last value forward.

Limitations

• It is relative, not absolute. The score compares today with the last two years. A reading of 44 means conditions are worse than recent norms. It is not a crisis call.
• Judgment calls. The weights and the two year window are our choices. We picked the window after a first test, so the backtest flatters the index somewhat. It has not been validated out of sample.
• Gross reserves. BCRA gross reserves include swap lines and IMF money, so they can rise while usable (net) reserves do not.
• The blue gap carries less signal since the April 2025 band regime narrowed it.
• Not yet included: the Merval in dollars, the CCL rate, net reserves and policy interest rates. We plan to add them.

Past readings (monthly average)