Markets and Data · Prediction markets
Prediction markets: crowd odds on Argentina, Brazil and the Fed
Crowd odds, not official data or advice; thin markets can be misleading.
Last updated: . Prices from the public Polymarket and Kalshi APIs.
A contract that pays US$1 if an event happens and trades at 47 cents implies a 47% chance, in the view of the people trading it. These odds react fast to news, but they reflect who is betting and how much money is behind each price. Argentine contracts are much smaller than those on Brazil or the Fed, so we flag every outcome where the market is thin.
Thin market rule: on Polymarket, order book liquidity under US$10,000; on Kalshi, open interest under 5,000 contracts. Kalshi odds use the midpoint of bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade.
Source and provenance
- Polymarket, Gamma public API (gamma-api.polymarket.com), event level prices, 24 hour and 7 day changes, volume and liquidity.
- Kalshi, public trade API (api.elections.kalshi.com), bid, ask, last price, volume and open interest. Kalshi does not publish a 7 day change.
- Each card links to the contract page with full resolution rules. Probabilities are shown as traded; we do not adjust or blend them.
Related indicators
Information only, not investment advice. Prediction markets can be wrong, can be moved by a few large traders, and may not be legal to use where you live.