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Argentina country risk and the 2027 election premium
Last updated: . Live values update automatically on the linked indicator pages.
Riesgo país is JP Morgan's EMBI spread for Argentina: the extra yield, in basis points, that dollar bonds pay over US Treasuries. It closed at 707 bps on 23 October 2026, the highest in twelve months and up 16.5% in October (JP Morgan EMBI via Rava Bursátil). The live riesgo país page updates every trading day.
How much 2027 election risk is priced in
Banco Galicia reported meetings with New York funds: in an adverse 2027 scenario, most see long dated sovereigns at US$40 to 50 per 100 of face value, median 45. Comparing that recovery value with today's Global 2041 price gives the market implied chance that current policies continue. At 45 it is 58%.
| Assumed bond price if policies change (US$ per 100) | Implied chance of continuity |
|---|---|
| 35 | 67% |
| 40 | 63% |
| 45 (median) | 58% |
| 50 | 51% |
| 55 | 42% |
Live indicators
- Riesgo país, liveCountry risk (riesgo país)What it isThe extra yield, in basis points, that investors demand to hold Argentine government dollar bonds rather than US Treasuries, as measured by JP Morgan's EMBI index.What it means for youIt is the market's price for the chance that Argentina will not pay. Lower readings mean cheaper borrowing for the government and companies, and usually better conditions for investment.How people use itInvestors use it to judge when Argentina might return to international bond markets and to compare it with peers. Companies watch it because it sets a floor for their own borrowing costs.Read more
- Dólar CCL, liveCCL dollar (contado con liquidación)What it isLike the MEP, but the security bought in pesos is sold for dollars abroad, so the dollars land in a foreign account.What it means for youIt is the rate at which capital can leave Argentina through the formal securities market, so it is the key reference for foreign investors and companies.How people use itCompanies and investors use it to move funds abroad legally through regulated brokers, for example to pay dividends or repatriate capital when other channels are restricted.Read more
- BCRA reserves, liveGross reserves (BCRA)What it isThe central bank's total holdings of foreign currency, gold and other external assets.What it means for youReserves are the country's buffer to defend the peso and pay debt. Rising reserves support confidence.How people use itInvestors use reserves, especially net of short term liabilities, to judge the risk of devaluation and default.Read more
Related guide pages
Information only, not investment advice. Figures are dated and sourced; nothing here is estimated by us unless stated.